Greece property prices 2026 forecast, that is the question we hear most often from international buyers right now, and the honest answer is more layered than most headlines suggest. Official Bank of Greece data, European Central Bank rate policy, a newly approved national housing strategy, stable Golden Visa thresholds, and a closing tax window all point in slightly different directions at once. This article walks through each of these factors using official sources, then draws a realistic picture of what buyers and investors from the United States, the Gulf, France and elsewhere should expect from the Attica property market in the second half of 2026.
What the Bank of Greece data actually show
According to figures published by the Bank of Greece in June 2026, apartment prices across the country rose 5.7% in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the same quarter of 2025. In Athens specifically, the increase was 5.2%, below the national average, while Thessaloniki rose 6.4% and other areas of the country rose 6.9%.
The more important signal is the trend rather than the single number. Full year 2025 apartment prices rose 8.1% on average, down from 9.1% in 2024. That deceleration, from around 9% to just above 5%, is the clearest message coming from official data. Prices are not falling. They are rising at a noticeably calmer pace than the past two years, which matters for anyone timing an entry point into the market.
Why some international investors are treating Greece as a safe haven
A factor that has nothing to do with Attica directly, yet touches every property transaction in the country, is the renewed conflict in the Middle East during 2026. According to the Bank of Greece Note on the Greek Economy published on 19 June 2026, uncertainty around the global economy increased significantly because of the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East, with a direct effect on energy prices and on assumptions about external demand.
The rise in oil prices, driven by the fighting and by concerns around the Strait of Hormuz, feeds into higher construction costs, higher energy costs for buildings, and additional inflationary pressure across the eurozone. At the same time, industry commentary has described Athens and the Athens Riviera as an emerging safe haven for international capital, with high net worth buyers viewing euro denominated Greek property as a stable store of value precisely because of global uncertainty elsewhere. Both readings are legitimate. The war raises costs on one side of the ledger, while adding to the appeal of Greek real estate as a hedge on the other. Buyers should expect both effects to be visible in the second half of 2026, not just one.
Any realistic Greece property prices 2026 forecast has to hold both effects in view at once, higher costs and safe haven demand together, not one instead of the other.
European Central Bank rates and the cost of financing
The second half of 2026 opens with the European Central Bank’s key deposit rate at 2.25%. According to the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters for the second quarter of 2026, expectations for how long this level will hold shifted upward compared with the previous quarter. Where almost no respondent expected a rate of 2.25% or higher for the second quarter in the prior survey round, close to a third now expect it for the second quarter, over half for the third quarter, and nearly two thirds for the fourth quarter of 2026.
The same survey revised euro area inflation expectations upward, from 2.1% to 2.7% for 2026. For buyers financing part of a purchase in euros, or simply watching the broader rate environment, the practical takeaway is that a near term rate cut looks unlikely. Anyone budgeting on the assumption that borrowing costs will ease significantly before year end should treat that as optimistic rather than the base case.
That rate environment is one more input into any Greece property prices 2026 forecast for the months ahead.
Greece’s new national housing strategy
On 23 July 2026, the Governmental Committee on Housing Policy approved Greece’s National Strategy for Housing Policy 2026 to 2035, as officially announced by the Ministry of Social Cohesion and Family. It is the country’s first unified ten year housing plan, comprising 50 measures with a combined budget of more than 6.5 billion euros.
The plan rests on three pillars, increasing housing supply, supporting households and vulnerable groups, and building permanent institutions to monitor housing policy. Immediate actions include renovating 20,000 homes for market release, building 2,350 social housing units on underused public land such as former military camps, making 400 homes available through social antiparochi arrangements, and adding 8,500 new places in student housing.
For international buyers, the important point is timing. This is a ten year plan, not an intervention that will move prices within the second half of 2026. Increasing housing supply is a medium term goal, and its real effect on prices will show up gradually over the coming years, not immediately. It is also worth noting that the strategy targets domestic housing supply and affordability, not the rules that govern foreign buyers directly.
Golden Visa thresholds hold steady
The Golden Visa programme remains active in 2026, with no new change to its investment thresholds. According to the official housing policy portal stegasi.gov.gr, under article 64 of law 5100 of 2024, the minimum real estate investment for a Golden Visa is 800,000 euros across the whole Attica region, the Thessaloniki regional unit, Mykonos, Santorini and all islands with a population above 3,100 residents. In the rest of the country, the threshold is 400,000 euros.
These levels have applied since 2024 and no change is expected within 2026. For the Attica market specifically, this means demand from third country investors remains concentrated in higher value properties, which continues to support prices at the top of the market, particularly along the Athens Riviera, without exerting the same pressure on the lower priced apartments bought mainly by local buyers.
A closing tax window before the end of 2026
A separate, time sensitive point matters for anyone weighing when to buy or sell. Under current Greek tax law, VAT on new build residential property remains suspended, with the Ministry of National Economy and Finance’s own public consultation platform confirming an extension of this VAT suspension through 2026. Separately, the 15% capital gains tax on property resale profit has also been suspended under the same framework through 31 December 2026, according to multiple Greek financial press reports citing the relevant legislation.
Both measures are reportedly under government discussion for a further extension into 2027, but as of publication no final decision has been confirmed. Buyers and sellers who are timing a transaction around these tax rules should treat 2026 as the confirmed window, and should not assume the same treatment will automatically continue afterward. Given the legal nature of this point, we recommend confirming the current status with a Greek tax advisor before making a final decision, and this section of the article should be checked against the latest official guidance before publication.
Greece property prices 2026 forecast, what it means for international buyers
Putting the pieces together, the picture for the second half of 2026 is reasonably clear. Attica property prices will likely keep rising, but at a noticeably calmer pace than 2024 and 2025, as the first quarter data already confirm. Borrowing costs are unlikely to ease meaningfully, since the ECB appears set to hold its current rate for longer than markets expected only a few months ago. The war in the Middle East adds a genuine element of uncertainty to energy and construction costs, while simultaneously reinforcing Greece’s appeal as a stable, euro denominated place to park capital for some international investors.
At the same time, the new national housing strategy and the stable Golden Visa threshold act as two counterbalancing forces. The first aims to expand housing supply over the long term, without an immediate effect on prices in the second half of 2026. The second keeps international demand concentrated in higher value property, continuing to support the upper end of the Attica market.
For anyone considering a purchase or sale in Attica during the second half of 2026, the takeaway is that the market remains on an upward path, but without the pace of the previous two years. It calls for careful valuation, realistic pricing, and a clear understanding of the forces at play, from ECB policy to a war thousands of kilometres away, and, for those specifically weighing new build purchases or resale timing, an honest look at how much runway remains on the current tax incentives.
Frequently asked questions
Will Greek property prices keep rising in 2026?
Yes, but at a slower pace, which is exactly what the Greece property prices 2026 forecast points to. Bank of Greece data show a 5.2% increase in Athens in the first quarter of 2026, well below the 9.1% recorded in 2024.
Is it safe to invest in Greek property given the war in the Middle East?
The war raises energy and construction costs across the eurozone, according to the Bank of Greece, but some international investors are treating Greek property as a stable safe haven asset precisely because of that same global uncertainty. Both effects are real and worth weighing.
Are Golden Visa investment thresholds changing in 2026?
No new change is expected. The threshold remains 800,000 euros for Attica, Thessaloniki, Mykonos and Santorini, and 400,000 euros for the rest of the country, under law 5100 of 2024.
Is there a deadline on Greece’s property tax incentives?
Under current law, VAT suspension on new builds and the suspension of the 15% capital gains tax on resale profit both run through 31 December 2026. An extension into 2027 is under discussion but not yet confirmed, so this should be verified with a tax advisor before making timing decisions.
Sources
- Bank of Greece, residential property price indices, first quarter 2026, https://www.bankofgreece.gr/enimerosi/grafeio-typoy/anazhthsh-enhmerwsewn/enhmerwseis?announcement=82b07233-a6f6-4b62-841e-e4ef38c61971
- Bank of Greece, Note on the Greek Economy, 19 June 2026, https://www.bankofgreece.gr/Publications/Note_on_the_Greek_economy_19_06_2026.pdf
- European Central Bank, Survey of Professional Forecasters, second quarter 2026, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_surveys/survey_of_professional_forecasters/html/ecb.spf2026q2.en.html
- Greek Ministry of Social Cohesion and Family, National Strategy for Housing Policy 2026 to 2035, 23 July 2026, https://minscfa.gov.gr/egkrithike-i-ethniki-stratigiki-gia-tin-prositi-stegi-prochoroun-amesa-pros-kataskevi-19-750-koinonikes-katoikies-me-schedon-60-000-ofeloumenous-kai-pano-apo-8-500-foititikes-esties/
- Housing policy portal, increase in minimum Golden Visa investment threshold, https://stegasi.gov.gr/programs/afxisi-oriou-elachistis-ependysis-se-akinita-gia-apoktisi-golden-visa/
- Ministry of National Economy and Finance, public consultation, extension of VAT suspension on real estate for 2026, https://www.opengov.gr/minfin/?p=13600
If you are weighing a purchase or sale in Attica and want a realistic, appraiser led view of value, the team at Epsilon Team Real Estate is here to help. Visit www.epsilonteam.gr.
Evita Eleftheroudaki
Real Estate Agent | Real Estate Appraiser
Co-founder
EPSILON TEAM REAL ESTATE
evita@epsilonteam.gr
